Oak Lawn Patch: Lipinski, Newman In ‘Statistical Dead Heat’ In Democratic Primary

Congressman Dan Lipinski leads challenger Marie Newman by two points in the upcoming primary, according to a Public Policy Polling survey.

LAGRANGE, IL — A new poll shows Congressman Dan Lipinski and challenger Marie Newman in a “statistical dead heat” in Illinois’s 3rd Congressional District Democratic race. Lipinski is facing his first real challenger as he battles to stay alive in the upcoming March 20 primary. The poll was commissioned by NARAL Pro Choice America, which has been pumping money into the upstart LaGrange challenger’s campaign. The race is being touted as one of the most watched Democratic primaries in the country and has attracted national attention.

The poll was conducted by Raleigh, NC-based Public Policy Polling. According to the survey, Lipinski leads Newman by two points — 43 to 41 percent — with 15 percent “not sure.” The poll was conducted from Feb. 27 to Feb. 28 using automated telephone interviews, and surveyed 648 likely Democratic primary voters in Illinois’s 3rd District. The margin of error is 3.9 percent.

The breakdown of those who participated in the survey are:

  • 55% women, 45% men
  • 16% Hispanic/Latino, 71% white, 7% African-American, 6% other
  • 31% aged 18-45; 46% 46-65; 23% older than 65

Among men and women, the survey noted:

  • Men – Lipinski 43%, Newman 40%
  • Women – Lipinski 44%, Newman 43%
  • Not sure – Women 17%, Men 13%

A breakdown of the respondents by race/ethnic background indicated:

  • Hispanic/Latino – Lipinski 44%, Newman 33%, not sure 23%
  • White – Lipinski 43%, Newman 46%, not sure 11%
  • African-American – Lipinski 54%, Newman 26%, not sure 21%
  • Other – Lipinski 35%, Newman 29%, not sure 36%

And by age:

  • 18-45 – Lipinski 48%, Newman 35%, not sure 17%
  • 46-65 – Lipinski 38%, Newman 48%, not sure 14%
  • Older than 65 – Lipinski 48%, Newman 36%, not sure 15%

See the PPP memo and crosstabs.

Lipinski leads the Blue Dog Coalition, a congressional caucus of fiscally conservative Democrats and is staunchly pro-life. Newman has attacked Lipinski as a “Republican running as a Democrat” who “votes with Republicans most of the time.” Progressive Democrats view Newman as a chance to unseat Lipinski and put House Democrats on a progressive track.

Newman stated at the Democratic candidates’ only debate that she “trusts women” to make their own decisions regarding their reproductive health. The Citizens for a Better Illinois political action committee has also reportedly spent $700,000 on ads attacking Lipinski.

Lipinski has won the endorsements of the Chicago Sun-Times and Chicago Tribune. Thirty mayors representing communities throughout Illinois’s 3rd District have endorsed Lipinski. The congressman also announced that he has been endorsed by the 900,000-strong Illinois AFL-CIO, the state’s largest labor union. Lipinski serves on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and has received the endorsement of transportation unions.

Newman, a former marketing consultant and anti-bullying advocate, has racked up endorsements from an assortment of influential progressive Democratic groups, including EMILY’s ListCitizen Action IllinoisReclaim ChicagoNARAL Pro-Choice AmericaThe Human Rights CampaignMoveOnOur Revolution Illinois and Local Engagement Aiding Progressives (LEAP) Forward.

She, too, has received union backing from the Service Employees International UnionHispanic American Labor Council, the Illinois Federation of Teachers and Nurses National United. Lipinski’s fellow Chicago House democrats Congressman Luis Gutiérrez (4th District) and Jan Schakowsky (9th District). Both announced their endorsement of Newman mainly for her pro-choice and pro-LGBT stands.

Sasha Bruce, vice president for campaigns and strategies with NARAL, told Politico’s Natasha Korecki that Newman’s momentum is due to resistance to President Donald Trump.

“Dan Lipinski has a real, formidable challenger like he’s never had before. The environment is different. … The energy is palpable,” Bruce said. “This is a staunchly progressive values-Democratic district.”

Illinois’s 3rd District encompasses Chicago’s McKinley Park neighborhood and Midway International Airport, and includes parts of Burbank, Bridgeview, Justice, Hometown, Hickory Hills, LaGrange, Oak Lawn, Chicago Ridge, Palos Hills Palos Heights, Palos Park, Lemont, Orland Park, Orland Hills, Homer Glen, Lockport, Western Springs and other communities.